Sojern releases trends shaping Summer 2026 travel

Demand is strong, but the window is now

RateGain has announced the latest summer travel insights from its AI-powered travel platform subsidiary, Sojern. 

With the FIFA World Cup 2026 now underway and roughly a third of summer bookings still yet to be made, the data has revealed that travellers are not stepping back but they are making different choices.

Ones shaped by pricing sensitivity, rising airfares across domestic and international routes, the ripple effects of conflict in the Middle East, and a broader mood of geopolitical caution that is quietly but meaningfully redirecting demand around the world.

"This summer is unlike any we've seen before," said Mark Rabe, CEO at Sojern. "The World Cup has driven meaningful demand into host cities in the U.S. and Canada, but its real effect has been to redistribute demand rather than simply amplify it. Hospitality marketers who understand where intent is building—and where it's softening—will be best placed to capture remaining summer bookings."

US outbound flight bookings are up 13% year-on-year, yet hotel searches are down 16%. 

Travellers appear to be locking in flights while holding off on accommodation decisions, a signal of pricing sensitivity and geopolitical caution. The window for travel marketers to act remains wide open. 

The data revealed a clear reorientation in where Americans are choosing to go. Europe is up 8% and the top international destinations for US travellers this summer are Mexico (8.7%), Canada (7.5%), the UK (7%) and Italy (6%), with India in eleventh place (2.3%). 

 Europe is proving broadly resilient. Across the continent, domestic flight bookings are up 35%, intra-European bookings up 37% and international inbound up 11%. 

The strongest growth is coming from within Europe itself, reflecting both the depth of the European travel market and some softening in long-haul demand, partly driven by uncertainty in the Middle East. France is up 15% in flight bookings, driven heavily by intra-European growth of 34%, and hotel searches are up 11%, suggesting sustained interest among international visitors. 

Spain is up 28% in flight bookings and 33% on hotel searches. Italy is up 24% in flight bookings and 30% on hotel searches, the UK is up 11% in flight bookings, though hotel searches are down 6%, and Portugal is up 24% in flight bookings and 24% on hotel searches.

London is the standout destination for international travellers to Europe this summer, topping the charts for Europeans, North Americans, Middle East and Africa travellers alike. 

For North Americans, London accounts for 13.7% of European destination bookings, followed by Paris (8.7%), Rome (6.5%), Madrid (4.7%) and Dublin (4.6%). 

Latin American travellers are the exception — they continue to favour Madrid heavily, which accounts for 28.5% of their European destination bookings, with Paris a distant second at 8.2%.

Meanwhile, the data has found hotel search activity to the Middle East remains well below 2025 levels across most corridors. 

Western Europe to the Middle East is down 49 percentage points year-to-date, while South Asia to the Middle East is down 61 points, among the sharpest declines in the data. 

The two exceptions tell their own story: intra-regional Middle East travel is tracking 9 points above last year, suggesting short-haul confidence within the region has held up, while the Middle East to United States corridor has surged dramatically, driven by World Cup demand. 

On a cautiously optimistic note, average daily hotel search activity is running above pre-conflict levels, suggesting travellers have not abandoned the region entirely, but are watching developments closely before committing to longer-haul plans.

With roughly a third of summer bookings still yet to be made across most markets, the opportunity for travel marketers remains significant. 

Understanding where intent is building, which audiences remain in market, and which destinations are gaining or losing momentum will determine which brands capture demand this summer.