Ground transport costs set to stabilise but regional pressures remain, Amex GBT finds

UK car rental prices set for modest rise as Europe sees mixed outlook

UK business travel buyers are set to see some of the most modest increases in car rental prices in Europe over the next year, with improving vehicle supply and strong competition helping to keep rates in check.

Car rental prices in the UK are forecast to rise by between 0.6% and 1.3% year on year in 2026-27, according to American Express Global Business Travel’s latest Ground Monitor.

The forecast puts the UK towards the bottom of the European market, with only France and Spain expected to see lower increases. Rental prices in both countries are forecast to remain broadly flat, rising by between 0% and 0.5%.

The relatively benign outlook comes as vehicle supply continues to recover across Europe, while competition between rental providers is helping to contain pricing.

But the picture is far from uniform across the continent. Germany is forecast to see rental prices increase by between 1% and 2%, with fleet scarcity preventing prices from falling further.

Scandinavia is expected to see a slightly higher increase of between 1% and 2.5%, while the Netherlands stands out as the European market facing the greatest upward pressure.

Dutch rental rates are forecast to rise by between 4% and 5%, driven largely by changes to motor vehicle taxes which are increasing the total cost of ownership for rental fleets.

Amex GBT expects European rental demand to remain firm, partly because businesses facing economic uncertainty may continue to rent vehicles rather than commit capital to buying or leasing fleets.

The report also highlights the seasonal nature of the European rental market. Prices can rise significantly during peak spring and summer travel periods, particularly in tourism-heavy destinations, meaning corporate travellers can face higher costs even where annual average rates appear relatively stable.

For travel managers, that makes the headline annual forecast only part of the picture.

In the UK, the combination of recovering supply and strong competition is expected to keep pricing relatively restrained. But buyers still need to account for fluctuations in demand and the timing of travel when negotiating and managing rental programmes.

The European figures also reinforce the importance of taking a market-by-market approach rather than applying a single assumption about ground transport inflation across the region.

At one end of the spectrum, France and Spain are effectively flat. At the other, Dutch businesses face a potential 4% to 5% increase.

The wider trend is therefore one of stability, rather than a return to uniformly falling prices.

Amex GBT Consulting director of consulting strategy, Sara Andell, said the company expected prices globally to remain stable, with moderate increases in markets where local conditions such as taxes and vehicle availability put additional pressure on costs.

For UK travel buyers, that represents a relatively positive outlook after the volatility of recent years.

But the European data also suggests that managing car rental spend will increasingly require attention to local taxation, fleet availability, seasonality and supplier competition – rather than simply relying on a single inflation assumption when setting travel budgets.