Guest Post: Air trends in 2025: What travel managers need to know

Amy Rayca, global practice line lead (Air) at Amex GBT, shares what's 'firmly' on the agenda

As we head into the latter part of the year, uncertainty continues to define the airline industry. Macroeconomic pressures, shifting trade relationships and geopolitical tensions are making the landscape difficult to navigate.

Yet the demand for business travel continues to grow. According to GBTA, global travel expenditure is on the rise despite this wider volatility, underlining the resilience of business travel demand. Our analysis of more than 750 airline contracts in 2024 shows fares rose by 2.6% year on year, evidence of continued pricing strength even in uncertain conditions. For travel managers, the challenge is meeting that demand cost-effectively in an environment where airline strategies are evolving fast.

Airlines are reshaping the way they do business, from resetting contract terms to tightening fulfilment targets and changing the metrics of value. For travel managers, the challenge is to keep pace. As we head towards 2026, three trends in air travel stand out as especially important for corporates to act on.

1. Corporate contracts are being redefined

Many of the shifts we are seeing in contracting began during the pandemic, but they are still rippling through the industry. Airlines have reset their baselines with corporates, often describing this as “right-sizing” of terms. The result: discounts are harder to secure, and agreements are more standardised than in the past.

Instead of tailored carve-outs, many corporates are finding themselves offered points-based or off-the-shelf product structures. Airlines are also closely monitoring fulfilment, with discounts removed if targets are missed. And those targets are broader than just revenue or market share. Carriers are introducing new performance goals designed to deepen customer relationships, which require careful monitoring by travel teams.

Joint ventures (JVs) add another layer. As carriers consolidate networks, corporates may see opportunities to expand programme coverage and unlock efficiencies. But it requires a thoughtful approach: JVs are increasingly assessing the total value of a contract, not just the numbers tied to individual routes. Travel managers must weigh coverage, cost, and commitment carefully when shaping programme strategy.

2. Premium travel and loyalty drive airline focus

Despite the uncertain environment, premium travel is proving robust. Our analysis of ticket prices shows Business Class fares are up 5.2% year-on-year, and Premium Economy is up 3.1%. For global network carriers, this has been supported by strong loyalty revenues and co-branded credit card sales. 

Airlines know there is a valuable customer base willing to pay for an enhanced experience, and they are investing heavily to capture and retain them. For corporates, this creates an opportunity. Programmes that align with airline loyalty initiatives can offer travellers better experiences, while also strengthening the company’s negotiating position. With retention such a high priority for carriers, loyalty can be a lever for corporates to achieve both cost savings and traveller satisfaction.

3. NDC: steady but uneven progress

New Distribution Capability (NDC) is firmly on the agenda. NDC adoption has continued to grow exponentially in the corporate space, as the ecosystem collectively develops the required functionality, not just to match traditional features but in some cases to surpass them.

To keep our own marketplace competitive and comprehensive, we’re investing further in NDC content while focusing on the overall user experience. That means working with travel partners to improve the end-to-end journey and deliver more value to customers. The main benefits are access to competitive fares and ancillaries, with some NDC options already offering better availability than legacy channels. Some airlines are also trialling simple bundles, giving corporates an early look at how tailored packages might evolve.

For travel managers, NDC offers the chance to gain insights into how new content channels affect programme value. It’s not an all-or-nothing shift – NDC can already deliver incremental improvements, and programmes that engage with it now will be better prepared as more advanced features become available.

What should travel manager do next?

The turbulence of recent years is not going away; uncertainty is now the operating environment rather than the exception. For travel managers, the priority is to stay agile: tracking performance against new fulfilment targets, recognising the growing role of joint ventures, aligning with loyalty strategies that airlines are pushing hard, and engaging with NDC where it can already deliver efficiencies. 

Contracts and policies can no longer be set once and left to run. Instead, programmes need active management and regular adjustment. The good news is that opportunity exists even in a volatile environment. By taking a proactive approach, corporates can build air programmes that are both resilient and responsive. In a year defined by uncertainty, that agility will be the key to delivering value for both the business and traveller.